Figure 1: Ocean surface expression of the Kavachi Volcano sub-marine eruption  (January 2014)

Get ready, because the next strong El Niño is on it’s way and contrary to the supposedly consensus scientific opinion, it’s not being fueled by atmospheric warming. No, the likely fuel igniting this latest Pacific Ocean wild fire is deep ocean volcanic events (Figure 1).

This may sound unlikely because the media, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and many politicians have inundated you, the public with reports stating humans are responsible for heating the atmosphere and causing all unusual climate events including El Niños. Not true.  There is an alternative and much more probable cause of the emerging 2015 El Niño...deep ocean geological forces. This article is timely for another very important reason. The public is about to be slammed by a new and very powerful natural force…an overwhelming tsunami of pro-global warming media coverage concerning this 2015 emerging El Niño. To survive this tsunami we all need to immediately turn, and then race toward higher scientific ground. This article will aid in that process.

The Quandary

Consensus climate science advocates of the man-made global warming theory are in a real quandary because their original contention was that strong El Niños, like the emerging 2015 one, would be fueled by a dramatically warming atmosphere. Except the atmosphere hasn’t warmed in 18.5 years based on the RSS satellite data set, and so there shouldn’t be enough excess heat energy to fuel a strong El Niño. Still a strong El Nino is on its way. Big problem!

The Rationalization

Global warming advocates have struggled to explain why atmospheric temperatures have not risen and essentially remained flat for 18.5 years. Failure to find / provide a believable explanation would in fact be strong indirect evidence that human induced CO2 is not the primary driver of atmospheric temperature variations. The latest explanation / rationalization is trade winds. Works like this. Unusually strong trade winds have supposedly captured man-made carbon dioxide-induced atmospheric heat, focused it, and then transposed it into a limited and fixed deep ocean location. A creative argument but it has huge problems and is not correct. In order for this to work a very complex and highly unlikely series of things needs occur. The trade winds needed to appear suddenly in 1997 and then increase concurrently and in correct proportion with carbon dioxide (CO2) induced atmospheric temperature increases. Next these trade winds would need to move the massive amount of captured heat energy past the shallow and medium depth ocean layers into one fixed and limited Western Pacific deep ocean location. It is here contended that the observed changes in trade winds are a side affect of deep ocean geologically induced heating, not a focusing mechanism. Geologically heat the ocean and you change many things; temperatures, currents, surface winds, and trade winds. Importantly, and obviously all of these things are changed in correct proportion to what generates them. This is a much more probable and direct explanation. No need to generate extremely complex and user "modified" computer models this support this geological solution.

One Deep Ocean Fixed Point Source

All previous El Niños, including this 2015 emerging one, originate at the same fixed point source. This is no longer under debate. All climate scientists and geologists now agree that a fixed and limited geographical area in the western Pacific, likely in the New Guinea / Solomon Islands region, is the birthplace of all El Niños (see Figures 1 and 2).

Figure 2: 1997 Shallow Sea Surface ocean temperature map with warmed ocean areas shown in dark red.
The very linear and unusual looking anomaly in the central Pacific Ocean is the strong 1997-1998 El Niño.

Figure 3: 2015 Shallow Sea Surface ocean temperature map with warmed areas shown in dark red.
Once again a very linear and unusual looking warm anomaly has formed east of New Guinea.

The two maps above clearly show that the 1997 and emerging 2015 El Niños originate at the same origin. The reader is directed to a previous Climate Change Dispatch article for a more detailed explanation of proof that this common source point is geological in nature.

 It is extremely important to that fixed ocean heat point sources are typically associated with stationary / fixed geological features, and conversely not typically associated with more variable ocean currents.

Deep Ocean Heat Flow vs. Seismicity

Oceanographers and geologists had in past incorrectly presumed that large increases in deep ocean heat flow should be directly correlatable to large increases in earthquakes (seismicity) and volcanism (USGS, Walker and James 1999). They hypothesized that Intense/frequent seismicity and volcanism should induce high magnitude deep ocean heat flow, and conversely minor seismicity and volcanism should induce low magnitude deep ocean heat flow. Utilizing this supposedly correct relationship many geologists and oceanographers plotted historical El Niño's vs. seismicty and volcanism. The resulting plots indicated that there was a less than perfect match and as a result these researchers concluded that geological forces where an unlikely cause of El Niño's.

Today based on very reliable research we now know that there is not a direct relationship between deep ocean heat flow and seismicity. First, recent research along the Gakkel Rift System beneath the Arctic Ice sheet proves that significant volcanic eruptions occurred in 2000-2001 and were associated with high heat flow emissions, but were not associated with large amounts of seismicity. Secondly in the Yellowstone Plateau large changes in geyser field heat and water flow are not well correlated to seismicity. All of this tells us that variations in geologically induced deep ocean heat flow are not directly correlatable to just seismicity. Rather they are more likely related to a more complex interaction of many geological forces. Knowing this we can now confidently restore deep ocean geological forces to the top of the El Niño generation list

Kavachi – Hinga Ha apai – Tinkakula

These three Solomon Sea area volcanoes (Kavachi, Hinga Ha apai, Tinakula) have actually been very active in recent years. They are all located in the New Guinea / Solomon Island El Niño fixed point source. Additionally earthquake activity in the Solomon Sea area has been at a high level during the last few years. Although not completely atypical, it can be taken as evidence that the major tectonic plate boundaries associated with all these geological features are very active. This increased tectonic activity strengthens the notion that deep ocean heat and fluid flow has increased in the last few years in this region. In fact, increased enough to have generated the emerging 2015 El Niño.

Figure 4:  Kavachi Volcano sub-marine eruption plume (January 2014)

The NASA satellite image above (Figure 4.) is a color enhanced NASA satellite image of the sub-ocean volcanic plume of the currently active Kavachi sub-ocean volcano. Up until just a few years ago earth's sub-ocean volcanoes could be imaged in this fashion.

Heat Point Source Located

Increasing amounts of research by climate scientists have proven that the area east of New Guinea and in and around the Solomon Islands is a deep ocean hotspot.  Kessler research utilized actual deep-diving temperature probes to map a hot spot in this area. Oddly enough, Dr Kessler does not necessarily ascribe geological forces as the root cause of this recently discovered deep ocean hot spot. But one can logically argue that geologic forces, specifically heat and fluid flow from sub-ocean volcanoes, hydrothermal vents, and active fault zones, is in fact the cause of this newly defined hotspot.

Other Substantiated Deep Ocean Geological Heat Sources

Deep ocean geological induced heating is proven to have occurred beneath the Arctic Ice cap in the years 1999-2001 as per research by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute. They documented the existence of extensive and extremely fresh volcanic flows underneath the arctic ice cap along a significant portion of a 1000-mile long deep ocean rift system called the Gakkel Ridge Rift System. Woods Hole also found large numbers of hydrothermal vents along this deep ocean faulted rift that were emitting super-heated water and gases.

Keep in mind that the now famous rapid increase in melting rate of the Arctic Ice cap occurred in 2001 to 2007. This timing matches up with the deep ocean volcanic eruptions and associated heat emissions noted by Woods Hole, showing the two events are related. It’s likely that the Gakkel Rift was actively emitting super-heated water and gases during the 2001-2007 time period and thereby responsible for the increased melting rate of the Arctic Ice sheet during this time period.

The Power

Deep geological forces have been mathematically proven to generate enough heat flow to fuel an El Niño. In the vernacular it is obvious that if geologic forces have the power to move entire continents 2-3 centimeters per year, alter atmospheric climate for two years (Mount Pinatubo), and form giant tsunamis that mix the entire ocean column, they can certainly and easily create a 2015 El Niño.

Summary

If strong El Niño's are generated by some kind of atmosphere / ocean interaction as many climate scientists and oceanographers contend it is important to consider these questions; Why haven't El Niño's been observed in other oceans or in other parts of the Pacific Ocean? Why are El Niño ocean temperature anomalies so unique / different than other ocean temperature anomalies.

The most likely answer to all the above questions is that strong El Niño's are not caused by an atmospheric / ocean interaction. Rather the root cause of strong El Niño's is likely from deep ocean geological activity in the form of volcanic eruptions, hydrothermal venting, and earthquakes. A complex interaction of geological forces is the best-fit answer.  Much of this activity occurs in deep ocean areas deep ocean rift systems that are relatively unmonitored regions. Only three percent of the oceans have been properly explored in detail. Even less regularly monitored.

The notion that strong El Niño's are of geological origin fits well with Plate Climatology Theory.

Ok now it’s now time to consider turning, and immediately moving to higher scientific ground.  If you don't, my recommendation is to immediately purchase Media Global Warming Tsunami Insurance because you are about to be slammed with a massive wave of pro-global warming debris.